Wednesday 20 December 2017

Coutts at Christmas

As we all know, dear reader(s), Coutts are for life, not just for Christmas, but ...

Solid performance from Coutts investments

Coutts investment performance this year to the end of November was ahead of peers, boosted by our exposure to key equity markets and low allocation to gilts.

A typical balanced portfolio was up 7.9% year-to-date compared to an investment industry average of 5.5%.

While past performance cannot be taken as a guide to future returns, this solid set of numbers so far this year is encouraging news for Coutts investment clients.

A key contributor has been our preference for the European and Japanese equity markets, as both markets have been doing well this year. Europe is among 2017's best performing markets in sterling terms while the Japanese rally included the Nikkei 225 Index hitting a 25-year high.


Okay, okay. Nice one, Coutts! / But what about inflation?! - ?! - ?!

Bank of England Governor must write to Chancellor

Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney must now write a letter to UK Chancellor Philip Hammond explaining why the bank has missed its 2% inflation target by more than 1%.


Who says he must?

It follows UK inflation rising to 3.1% for November - its highest level in six years. Air fares and computer games contributed to the increase, according to the Office for National Statistics, and prices in the services sector are also rising. Higher inflation is usually good for our portfolios and funds because of our preference for equities and property over bonds.

The BoE said it was relaxed about the rise and maintained its stance that inflation is peaking and will trend downwards over the course of next year.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the BoE voted unanimously this week to keep rates at 0.5% despite the higher inflation figure. Mr Carney reiterated his statements from November that further rises could be in store in 2018. Markets expect two rises before the end of 2020, although they don't see the first happening until late next year.

Interest rate rises are generally not good for gilts and we retain our view that they are poor value. We have held a low allocation to gilts for some time and, where we do hold them, have shortened the duration to protect our portfolios and funds from rate rises.

With inflation currently high, it's worth remembering that the Coutts Luxury Price Index shows that those buying luxury goods and services can face even fiercer price rises. They should therefore work harder to protect the purchasing power of their wealth.


Okay, okay. The thing is ... is inflation really that low? I mean, in the real world, yeah? I doubt it. I see prices shooting up all the time. And it's down to Brexit. 'Don't discuss Brexit, boss!' I can't help it, Voice. Do you remember when we were promised sunlit uplands and unicorns and all kinds of weird shit? 'Yeah.' Well, yesterday Iain Duncan Smith was telling businesses that they would just have to cope with the new situation we find ourselves in. 'Oh. What about the sunlit uplands?' No mention. 'What about the fucking unicorns, Mikey?!' There ain't gonna be no unicorns, son! Christ! Get with the programme! We're talking about survival now. 'What?! Survival?!' That's the very best we can hope for.

Right. See you later(s), alligator(s).