Monday, 23 January 2017

President Trump's term will be a bad time for US equities

That's what they're saying, I think. 'What?! Who are saying?' The people in the PR email. 'Eh? What PR email, boss?' Jesus H. ! This one, man -

London, 22 January - US equities are unlikely to perform better during President Trump's tenure than under many of his predecessors, analysis by Source, one of Europe's leading ETF providers, shows.

'Oh.' Yes, dear reader(s), it's the, uh, Monday morning PR email, back by popular demand - your popular demand, believe it or not. Even though it's a cold, dark Monday morning in January. 'Ha! You would think they would have better things to do. Demanding PR emails on cold, dark Monday mornings in January. They must be fucking mental!' Shut up, Voice! Please. Don't abuse my readers. / Anyway ...

The analysis shows that the S&P 500 delivered an annualised return of 13.9% under Barack Obama and 15.2% under Bill Clinton, ranking their terms fifth and third respectively in terms of stock market gains (since 1853).


But with the S&P 500 currently on a Shiller Price-Earnings ratio of more than 282 it is unlikely that it will do better under President Trump, Source says.

Oh dear.

Paul Jackson, Head of Research at Source, commented: "Such a high Shiller ratio is more commonly associated with negative future returns. Valuations are an important determinant of future returns: Reagan and Obama were helped on that front, as were Harding and Coolidge in 1921. President Trump does not have that luxury. He should not measure himself by what the US stock market says as I fear the judgement will be harsh no matter what he does."

Uh, well ... not good. 'Not good at all.' However, I doubt Trump will be measuring himself by anything. He just doesn't care. 'Man, what he says ... is reality.' Yes, Trump decides what is reality and what ain't. 'Or that Comical Sean guy that he's got working for him decides.' Yeah, with the tanks rolling by in the background ... 'Er, that was Ali.' Yes, of course, Ali. I get them mixed up.

The analysis shows that since 1853, the best annualised returns by the US stock market were made under presidents Harding/Coolidge (17.7%, 1921-29); Hayes (15.6%, 1877-1881); Clinton (15.2%, 1993-2001); Lincoln (14.4%, 1861-1865); and Obama (13.9%, 2009-17).

Okay. 'Is there more?' A bit.

Simplifying personal and corporate taxation is one of the policy initiatives intimated by President-elect Trump. Source analysis shows that the sectors that currently pay the most tax and would therefore be likely to benefit the most are retail, industrials, financial services and media. The sectors that would have least to gain from tax cuts include real estate, autos, travel & leisure and healthcare.

Okay. Well, now we know.


Anything else? 'What else, boss?' Trump again, I suppose. 'Ha! The whole world is talking about him!' Yeah. But not in the way he wants. / Did you see Trump with the CIA on Saturday night, dear reader(s)? It was like a stand-up comedy routine. 'By Rupert Pupkin.' Christ! There must be some serious people in America - in positions of power - who can do something about this. 'Maybe he'll be impeached.' Before he starts a war with China? Well, that would be nice, Voice. Personally, I would appreciate that a lot because I'll be doing my music this year seriously and ... 'You don't want to be entertaining a pile of ashes.' Precisely! / But life goes on, you dig? Let's not get depressed. I'll be back later with a conceptual, No. 482.