Tuesday 1 September 2020

Economic recovery in emerging markets remains unconvincing outside of China

And that's not me saying that. You wouldn't listen to me saying that, dear reader(s), would you? 'Well, who's saying it, boss?' NN Investment Partners. 'Who are they?!' Just some firm, Voice. Just a firm in a PR email, that's all.

Economic recovery in emerging markets (EMs) remains unconvincing outside of China, which is still seeing patchy growth, according to NN Investment Partners (NN IP).

NN IP's EM Economic Growth Momentum Indicator is now at -1.05 on a scale of +/- 3.0, having hardly recovered from its low of -1.34 reached in the last week of July. The Indicator gauges economic momentum in the leading 22 EMs.

You see? 'Yeah. Yeah, I see.' Good.

Actually, I've got a bit of a headache this morning, and it's making me feel sick. Not really a migraine. My stomach feels unsettled though. 'I'm sure the readers are really interested, boss.' Well, I hope they are BECAUSE(!) ... I'm their spiritual leader, you dig? 'Yeah.' If something happens to me ... 'It doesn't bear thinking about.' No.

Anyway, we've got this Maarten-Jan now, and, uh ... he wants to say a few words. 'Martin Jan?' No. Maarten-Jan. Maarten-Jan Bakkum, truth be told. 'Oh, okay.' This is what he says -

Maarten-Jan Bakkum, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, NN Investment Partners:

"A clear positive is the rapid recovery of global trade, which has helped the manufacturing exporters in Asia and central Europe. In countries such as China, Vietnam, Poland and Slovakia, year-on-year export growth is back in positive territory.

"However, despite a new fixed-investment cycle in China, most commodity exporters in Latin America and Africa continue to see sales far below previous levels.

"Even in China, it is telling that household consumption and corporate investment in the private sector are clearly lagging export recovery and fixed investment in the public sector. This shows that policy stimulus is working well in infrastructure and manufacturing but has gained less traction elsewhere. In the end it is easier to tell a public entity to build something than to incentivize a private company to invest in a new project or an individual consumer to go out for dinner."

Dinner? Christ! I haven't even had my lunch yet. I'm not sure I feel like lunch. 'Maybe it will settle your stomach. What are you having?' A cheese and tomato sandwich. 'Nice. / What yoghurt are you having?' I've run out of yoghurt, so just the sandwich. 'Oh no!' It's no big deal, man. / I'm having chips tonight, obviously. 'As is your wont.' Exactly! I WANT CHIPS - !!!

Anyway, thanks, Maarten!

...

Anything else, kook(s)? My life? I'll have to make another fresh start soon, I reckon. Yeah, yeah. I'm all positive and shit from the hypnosis, BUT(!) ... I'm still going to be in a bad situation if I don't get anywhere with my music soon. I mean, I keep dodging bullets, man, but one day my luck will run out. Do you know what I mean? 'Mikey.' What, Voice? 'One day, everyone's luck will run out.' Oh, ain't that the truth!

Laters!